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       What is a triple-blinded, completely randomized case-control clinical drug trial?          
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One in which the patients do not know which drug treatmentthey are receiving, the nurses do not know which drug treatment they are administering, and the physicians conducting the study do not know what theyare doing!!!

Two statisticians are out hunting when one of them sees a duck. The first takes aim and shoots, but the bullet goes sailing past six inches too high. The second statistician also takes aim and shoots, but this time the bullet goes sailing past six inches too low. The two statisticians then give one another high fives and exclaim, "Got him!".







                                                                       
















Current Assignments


Day
Date
Class Activity
Homework
92
2/2
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Estimating with confidence
Examples  10.1, 10.2 and 10.3
.
Read  pages 538 through 542.
Do problems 10.1 through 10.4
93
2/3
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Estimating with confidence
Read Examples 10.4, 10.5, 10.6 and 10.6 and get started with homework
.
Read  pages 543 through 552.
Do problems 10.5 through 10.11
94
2/6
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Estimating with confidence
Class Work: Exercises 10.12 through 10.14
.
Read  page 553 and summarize
Do problems 10.19 through 10.24
95
2/7
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Estimating with confidence

.
Read  pages 559 through 563
Do problems 10.15 through 10.18, 10.25 and 10.26
96
2/8
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Test of Significance
Examples 10.8 through 10.11
.
Do problems 10.27 through 10.33
Summarize Outline of a test on pages 563 and 564
97
2/9
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Test of Significance
Example 10.12 through 10.14

.       
Do problems 10.34 through 10.38 
98      
2/10    
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Test of Significance
Examples 10.15 and 10.16
Class Work: Do problem 10.79 a) and b) and 10.86 to be collected
.       
Read  page 565 through 581and summarize

Do problems 10.39 through 10.42 - Show all steps and sketch a graph

Make sure you answer question posted on 2/1:
Answer the following quesiton on paper: (I will collect it)
How can we avoid jumping to conclusions when using samples to estimate parameters?

.       
99      
2/13    
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Test of Significance


Do problems 10.45 through 10. 50
.               
Do problems 10.51 through 10.55         
100     
2/14    
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Inference as Decision
Test from confidence intervals
Making Sense of Statistical Significance

Increasing the Power
Examples 10.17 and 10.18
.               
Read examples 10.19 and 10.20
Do problems 10.56 through 10.65 
101     
2/15    
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Inference as a Decision
Test on Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing
Different views of statistical tests
.               
Do problems 10.66 through 10.68 
102     
2/16    
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Inference as a Decision
Do problems 10.69 through 10.71
.                
Do problems 10.72 through 10.75 
103     
2/21    
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Inference as a Decision
Do problems 10.78 through 10.81
.               
Do problems 10.82 through 10.85
        
104     
2/22    
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference - Inference as a Decision
Discussion on homework problems

[       
105     
2/23    
Chapter 10
Introduction to Inference
Chapter test
.               
Do MC questions 1-17 odd numbers        





Day
Date
Class Activity
Homework
76
1/9/2012
Chapter 9
Sampling Distribution

Activity 9A on page 485
You will not need the posted notes until tomorrow. Do parts 1 through 6.
Create a document, YI_Activity9.doc and
include each step's work, sketches of plots and short description. Drop the document by the end of the period.
Read pages 488 through 489
Do problems 9.1 through 9.5(a and b)
.
77
1/10
Chapter 9
Sampling Distribution

Activity 9 completion
.

Do problems 9.8 through 9.11
78
1/11
Chapter 9
Sampling Distribution of 1292010_72909_1.png
Example 9.7
.
Do problems 9.12 through 9.17
79
1/12
Chapter 9
The Sampling Distribution quick review
Examples 9.7 and 9.8
.
Do problems 9.19 through 9.24, 9.29 and 9.30
1/13
NO SCHOOL
.
1/16
NO SCHOOL
.
80
1/17
Chapter 9
The Sampling Distribution
Problems 25 through 28
Example 9.10 through 9.11
.
.
Do problems 9.31 through 9.42
81
1/18
Chapter 9
The Sampling Distribution
.

Do problems 9.49 and 9.50
82
1/19
Chapter 9
The Sampling Distribution
Do problems 9.43 through 9.48
.
83
1/20
Chapter 9
The Sampling Distribution
Homework assignments review

.
Study for test
84
1/23
Chapter 9 Test

Midterm review material for chapters 1-4
Look back at your homework.

.
85
1/24
.
Midterm review material for chapters 5-8
Look back at your homework.
.
86
1/25
.
87
1/26
Midterms start
88
1/27
AP Statistics Midterm: 68 Multiple Choice questions from chapters 1 through 8
Chapter 1:  5   questions
Chapter 2:  11 questions
Chapter 3:  9   questions
Chapter 4:  5   questions
Chapter 5:  11 questions
Chapter 6:  15 questions
Chapter 7:  6   questions
Chapter 8:  6   questions
.
89
1/30
Midterms
.
90
1/31
Midterms
.
91
2/1
Midterm discussions
Read Introduction and Example 10.1 on pages 535 through 537.

Answer the following quesiton on paper: (I will collect it)
How can we avoid jumping to conclusions when using samples to estimate parameters?
.


Day
Date
Class Activity
Homework
70
12/19
Chapter 8
The Binomial Distribution
Examples 8.1 through 8.7
.
Problems 8.1 through 8.8
Summary of Binomial setting, distribution and pdf.
.
71
12/20
Chapter 8
Binomial Coefficient and probability
Binomial mean and standard deviation
Normal approximation for Binomial Distributions
Examples 8.9 through 8.20
.
Problems 8.13 through 8.20
Normal approximation for Binomial Distributions Summary
72
12/21
Chapter 8
Example 8.14

.
Problems 8.24 through 8.26
73
12/22
Work on the following assignmens:
Problems 8.9 through 8.12
Problems 8.21 through 8.23


.
Problems 8.27 through 8.36
74
12/23
Chapter 8

.
75
12/24
Enjoy the winter break!!

christmas-animated-gifs-06.gif
and




happy-new-year-animated-gif-2.gif



.
76
1/3

Chapter 8
The Geometric Distribution
Examples 8.15 through 8.17
The Mean and Standard Deviation of a Geometric Random Variable
Examples 8.18 through 8.20
Problems  8.37 and 8.38


.

Problems  8.39 through 8.44
Summary for the Geometric setting, rules for calculating probabilities
77
1/4
Chapter 8
The Geometric Distribution
8.45 through 8.48
.
8.55 and 8.56
73
1/5
Chapter 8

.
74
1/6
.
Chapter 8
Chapter 8 Test
.


Day
Date
Class Activity
Homework
62
12/7
Chapter 7
Discrete and continuos Random Variables
Examples 7.1 through 7.4

Activity 7
Read pages 391 through 401

Do problem 7.1 through 7.6

Write down in your notes the probability distribution for a discrete random variable


.
63
12/8
Chapter 7

Activity 7 (Completion)
1. Share data with the rest of the class
2. Type a document including parts 1 through 8.
3. The name of the document should be YI_Activity7.doc.
4. Drop it in the insight folder.
5. If the insight folder has any of your old files, please delete them.   
..
Problems 7.8, 7.12 and 7.16 through 7.17

.
64
12/9
.
Chapter 7
Means and variances of random Variable
Examples 7.5, 7.6 and 7.7
Law of Large Numbers
The "law of small numbers"
Examples 7.8 and 7.9
.
Problems  7.22 through 7.29, 34 and 36

Write down in your notes the formula for the mean and variance of discrete random variable
65
12/12
Chapter 7
Rules for means and variances
Examples 7.10 through 7.13
Combining Normal random variables
Example 7.14
Problems 7.37, 7.38 and 7.39
.
Problems  7.41, 7.42, 7.50 and 7.51
66
12/13

Hand in the solutions to the practice test to the substitute teachers. The solutions to the question will be posted after school. Send me an email if you have any questions.
.Handin

67
12/14
Chapter 7 Test


.
68
12/15
Chapter 7
.



Day
Date
Class Activity
Homework
56
11/29
Chapter 6
The idea of Probability and its use
Randomness and probability
Probability Models - Multiplication Principle

Activity 6: Spinning Wheel


.
Read Examples 6.1 through 6.7
Do Problems 6.3, 6.4, 6.9 and 6.11, 6.12
57
11/30
Chapter 6
Probability rules
Independence and the Multiplication Rule
Examples 6.8 through 6.15
Exercises 6.29 and 6.30
Notes for 6.30:

A = {The person chosen completed 4 years of college or more}

(a) Explain why P(A)=0.256
.

Do problems  6.14, 6.17 through 6.20
58
12/1
Chapter 6
General Probability Rules
Conditional Probability
Example 6.17, 6.22 through 6.25
Problems 6.46 through 6.51

.
Do problems 6.46 through 6.55
59
12/2
Chapter 6
General Probability Rules
Conditional Probability
Examples 6.22 and 6.23

Create a Power Point Presentation with one of the following topics:

1. Stat and technology
2. Probability and technology

Use images and short paragraphs.
The ppp should have at least 5 slides.
Include the URL's for each source.
.
Problems 6.24, 6.26, 6.35 and 6.41
60
12/5
.
61
12/6
Chapter 6 Test

.
MC questions 1-10 in Methods of Data Collection
62
12/7
Extra Credit:
Dr. Frank Newport, Editor-in-Chief of Gallup Corp. and the foremost expert on Political Polling, will speak at PHS on Wednesday December 7th from 2PM-3PM in the Black Box Theater.
.



Day
Date
Class Activity
Homework
42
11/4
Chapter 5
Read pages 268 through 274
Summarize definitions and new concepts
.
43
11/7
Chapter 5
Read up to page 283
Exercises 5.1 through 5.15
Summarize definitions and new concepts
.
45
11/8
Chapter 5

.
Exercises 5.16 through 5.27
46
11/9
Chapter 5
Designing Experiments
The Physicians' Health Study video clip
Read up to page 297
Exercises 5.31 through 5.33, 5.39
Summarize definitions and new concepts
.
47
11/14
Chapter 5
Examples 5.1 through 5.8
Exercises 5.35, 5.36


Exercises 5.28-5.30
Read up to page 303
Summarize definitions and new concepts
.
48
11/15
Chapter 5
Quiz

.
Work on previously assigned problems.
49
11/16
Chapter 5
Matched Pairs
Read Examples 5.16 through 5.19 and do exercises 5.43 through 5.45
Note: I made some changes to previously assigned exercises
Email me if you have any questions
.
Exercise 5.46 and 5.47
I will be checking homework tomorrow.
50
11/17
Chapter 5
Matched Pairs
Homework Review
.
Exercise 5.48, 5.49 and 5.51
51
11/18
Chapter 5
Test has been rescheduled for Monday

Chapter 5 Practice Test

.
.
Study for test
52
11/21

Chapter 5 Test
.
Enter the BIRTH program in calculator
.
53
11/22
Chapter 5
Simulating Experiments
.
Exercise 5.59 through 5.62
54
11/23
Chapter 5
Simulating Experiments
The Birthday Problem
.
No homework
55
11/28
Chapter 5
Simulating Experiments
Complete The Birthday Problem and work on exercises 5.65, 5.67 and 5.73
.
Read pages 330 through 333 and do problems 6.1 and 6.2



Day
Date
Class Work
Homework
31
10/21
Leonardo's Associations with Minitab

Chapter 4
Transforming Relationships
The ladder of Power Functions


.
Read pages 194 through 203
Do problems 4.1 through 4.5
Write summary of monotonic functions on pages 197, 200 and 201
32
10/24
Chapter 4
Exponential growth and Logarithm transformation
Read Examples 4.3 through 4.7 and do problem 4.6
.
Read pages 204 through 211
Do problem 4.7
Summarize pages 204 and 206
33
10/25
Chapter 4
Power Law models and predictions
Examples 4.8 and 4.9
Problems 4.8 through 4.11
.
Read up to page 219
Summarize Power Law Models on the top of page 215
Do problems 4.12 and 4.13
35
10/26
Chapter 4
In class problems 4.14 through 4.21
.
Complete class work
36
10/27
Chapter 4
Cautions about correlation and regression
Examples 4.10, 4.11 and 4.12
.
Read up to page 230
Do problems 4.27 through 4.32
37
10/28
Chapter 4
The question of causation
.
Read up to page 236
Do problems 4.33 through 4.37
38
10/31
Chapter 4
Read up to page 245
witch.bmp
Enjoy Halloween!

.
39
11/1
Chapter 4
Relations in Categorical Data
Examples 4.19, 4.20, 4.21 and 4.22

Do problems 4.50 through 4.53

.
Read up to page 250
Do problems 4.56 through 4.61
40
11/2
Chapter 4
Simpson's Paradox
Example 4.23
Do problems 4.46, 4.47 and 4.62
.
Do problems 4.54, 4.55 and 4.64
41
11/3
Chapter 4


.
.
42
11/4
Chapter 4 Test
.
Read pages 269 through 274
Do problems 5.1 through 5.8
.
43
11/7
Include sketches of plots, equations, r and r-sqr and conclusions.
It must be dropped in the box at the end of the period.
Note: it must be typed and the graphs must be a snapshot from calcualtor or you can use Minitab in the lab
Read pages 268 through 274
.


Day
Date
Class Work
Homework
22
10/10
Chapter 3

SAT Scores - activity with Minitab
.
Read pages 121 through 123
Problems 3.1 through 3.4
23
10/11
Chapter 3
Example 3.4
Relationship between explanatory and response

Scatterplots
Calculator Activity
.
Problems 3.5 through 3.14. Skip 3.8
24
10/12
Chapter 3
SAT Scores
Examples 3.5 and 3.6
Homework problems discussion
.
Problems 3.15 through 3.23
25
10/13
Chapter 3
Correlation
Example 3.7
Problems 3.24 through 3.28
.

Problems 3.29 through 3.34
Summarize "Facts about correlation" on page 143
26
10/14
Chapter 3
Least-Squares Regression
Examples 3.9 through 3.13
.
Problems 3.38 through 3.43
Summarize "Facts about least-squares regression" on page 162
Summarize "The role of r-sq in regression" on page 157
.
27
10/17
Chapter 3
Residuals and influential observations
Example 3.14 and 3.15
Work on poblem 3.46

.

Problems 3.44, 3.45, and 3.47
28
10/18
Chapter 3
Questions on Facts about correlation and LSRL
Work on problems 3.48, 3.50 and 3.51


.
Problems 3.49 through 3.54
29
10/19
Chapter 3
Chapter Test Review
Problems 3.62 and 3.63


.
30
10/20
Chapter 3 Test
.
Problem 3.65 to be collected and graded
Include calculations, graphs and conclusions
31
10/21
Leonardo's Associations with Minitab
.
Hand out on Data Transfomation
32
10/24
Leonardo's Associations with Minitab
.



Day
Date
Class Work
Homework
13
9/26
Experimental Probability

COINTOSS activity using the TI calculator


Chapter 2
Density Curves and the normal distributions
Mathematical models
Skweness
Normal Distribution
.
Read pages 78 through 82 and do problems 2.1 through 2.4
14
9/27
Chapter 2
Problem 2.5 Roll a distribution and
Problem 2.16 Calculator Generated Density Curve
Standard Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution Calculations
Finding Normal Proportions
Is Cholesterol a Problem for Young Boys?
Example 2.9 Working with an Interval
Finding a value given a proportion
Example 2.10 SAT Verbal Scores
.
Problems 2.6 through 2.9
Skip 2.10

15
9/28
Experimental Probability

COINTOSS activity using the TI calculator. Do worked example 1 on page 33. Do parts a) through d) and paste snapshots of your calculator work on a Word document: YI_Cointoss.doc





Problems 2.11 through 2.16

.
16
9/30
Chapter 2
DIETOSS activity using the TI Calculator. Do worked example 2 on page 34. Do parts a) through c) and paste snapshots of your calculator work on a Word document: YI_Dietoss.doc
Note: the program has an error that is caused during the transfer of the file from the computer to the calculator. Edit it by changing L1 to 2ND 1 and L2 to 2ND 2 in all the lines that they appear.

Problems 2.18
.

17
10/3
Chapter 2

Example 2.11 The Gary Vocabulary Scores
Assessing Normality

.
Problems 2.19 through 2.25
18
10/4
Chapter 2
Example 2.12 How Normal Probability Plots are constructed


.
Problems 2.26 through 2.30
19
10/5
Example 2.12 How Normal Probability Plots are constructed
.
Problems 2.31 through 2.37
20
10/6
Chapter 2 Test Review
.
21
10/7
Chapter 2
Chapter 2 Test

.
Do problems 1 through 8 in hand-out


Day
Date
Class Work
Homework
9/1
Summer Assignment due date
Read the material and do all problems.


Drop your assingment in a box in guidance office.
.
1
9/8
Introductions
.
2
9/9
Chapter 1
Problems discussions
.
Hwk: hand-out.
Include one more part:
d) Draw the relative and cummulative relative histogram for 1900.
.
3
9/12
Chapter 1 Test Review


.
Hwk: Finish practice test
4
9/13
Chapter 1 Test
Work on problems 1 through 8 from hand-out
Hwk: Work up to problem 14
.
5
9/14
In Class: Graphs Activity

.

Hwk: All assignments in worksheet
6
9/15
Probability
Permutations and Combinations

.
Hwk: Exercises 1.1 through 2.5
7
9/16
Probability
Permutaions with Repetitions and Circular Permutations.
In class: 2.6 through 2.15
Hwk:
Exercises 2.16 through 2.19
.
8
9/19
Probability
Permutaions with Repetitions and Circular Permutations.
In Class:   
Hwk: Exercises 1-3 and 10-14 on Permutations and Combinations. Exercises 1 through 11(odd) on Permutations with Repetitions and Circular Permutations

..
9
9/20
Probability
In Class: Compound Events and Conditional Probability


.
Exercises 1 through 7 (odd) on  Compound Events Probability (page 246)

Exercises 1 through 15 (odd) from Probability and Odds
10
9/21
Probability
In Class: Compound Events and Conditional Probability


.
Hwk:  
Exercises 1 through 10 (odd) on  Conditional Probability (page 248)


11
9/22
Probability
The Binomial Theorem
In Class: Exercises 1 through 13 from page 250
.
Hwk:  
The Binomial Theorem
Exercises 1 through 13 from page 250
12
9/23
Probability
In Class: Compound Events and Conditional Probability (even numbers)
.
Hwk:
Permutaions with Repetitions and Circular Permutations. (even numbers)
Packet will be collected Monday at the end of the period
.
13
9/26
Experimental Probability

COINTOSS activity using the TI calculator


.
Read pages 78 through 82 and do problems 2.1 through 2.4

Experimental Probability
Enter the programs TWOCOINS and DIETOSS in pages 34 and 35.
Do problems 5, 8, 9 and Drawing Inferences on page 35.

.


.















School Year 2011-2012





Topic
 Approximate date of Testing
Chapter 1
September 13th
Probability
September 22nd
Chapter 2
October 6th
Chapter 3
October 15th
Chapter 4
November 4th
Chapter 5
November 21st
Chapter 6
December 6th
Chapter 7
December 14th
Chapter 8
December 22nd
Chapter 9
January 12th
Chapter 10
January 30th
Chapter 11
February 9th
Chapter 12
February 22nd
Chapter 13
March 8th
Chapter 14
March 22nd
AP Exam Review
April
AP Exam / Content Test
May 11th
Project Proposal
May 13th
Final Exam
May 20th
Project Write-up
May 26th
Project Completion
June 7th
Project Presentations Start
June 8th


























        Mrs. Elia’s
“Company Policy” *

School Year 2011-2012
AP Statistics
There will be no eating in the classroom.

Grade composition:
                                                     20%             Homework, folder and notebook
                                                     20%              Daily class participation, activities and pop quizzes
                                                     60%             Quizzes and Tests

Projects
Some projects will be counted as a Test and some will be graded as Class activity .

Homework
The student is responsible for completion and correction of homework assigned.
Homework will be checked every day. Neatness and completeness is important. All material should be kept in the math folder or notebook.
Math folder (Company rules must be included)
The math folder should contain homework, class notes, class activities, projects pop quizzes, quizzes and tests. I will collect it at random without notice every marking period for grading.
 Note: After midterm, you can leave all the material home and start with a clean folder.

Tardiness
Class starts immediately!
Every student is expected to be in the classroom and prepared for class no later than two minutes after the second bell rings. There will be “break-detention” for the student who is late. Chronic offenders will be contacted at home.

Absence
Student is responsible for making up work missed. Check Mrs. Elia’s classes in the PHS website for lessons and assignments. During periods 4 and 6 I’m available for questions. Hours after school can also be scheduled by appointment.

Absent for a test or quiz
If you are absent the day of an announced quiz or test, you are expected to take the quiz/test on the day you return. In any other circumstance the make up test and quiz must be taken within the first two days after returning to school. If the make up is not taken, it is a zero.




Cheating policy… “Absolute zero”. Plus parents will be contacted.

Textbooks: As soon as you get your book, write your name on the back of front cover
It must be covered at all times and well cared for. The cost of your book is $80. Book must be returned in good conditions (or pay a fine) 10 days before end of school. Otherwise report cards will be withheld.

What to bring to the classroom
Your own calculator           Pencil or pen            Folder           Books
Nobody can borrow calculators during a quiz, test or pop quiz.

What not to bring to the classroom
Food        sunglasses   ipod      cell phones(keep it in your book bag)
Any of these items I find, I will turn them over to main office.

Technology in the classroom
Every student should have a graphing calculator. TI 83, TI 84, TI Nspire and TI 89 are the good for this course. Calculators may be borrowed on a limited basis from the school. Talk to me as soon as possible.


How to contact Mrs. Elia
My office is in room 234.
My telephone number is (609) 806-4280 extension 3631. During break, you can find me in room 242. If you cannot get me at any of these locations, look for me wherever there is a photocopier.
My email address is graciela_elia@monet.prs.k12.nj.us. I encourage you to communicate with me as much as possible.

*All terms and conditions are subject to change with written notification by Mrs. Elia